Sunday, September 19, 2010

Some Picks: NFL Week 2

Week 2's picks: in which I try not to put too much stock in Week 1's results, because it's only one week, but may have a hard time avoiding.

Atlanta (-6.5) over Arizona
The Falcons let me down in Week 1, but at least they have a moderately competent quarterback.

Baltimore (-2.5) over Cincinnati
Maybe (maybe) it was just the Jets' jaw-droppingly awful offense that made the Ravens' D look so good on Monday, but I can't believe it was just the Patriots' D that made the Bengals' offense look so terrible. Yes, Palmer and Ocho put up good fantasy stats last week, but since all those passes and points came in garbage time, the stats are just that: garbage.

Kansas City (+1.5) over Cleveland
I know KC had some lucky things going in their favor last week (weather that was worse for San Diego's offense than theirs, raucous home crowd, a special teams touchdown), but I saw some things I liked. Meanwhile, Cleveland lost to Tampa Bay. If you can't beat Tampa, who can you beat? (Please forget for a moment that Green Bay lost to Tampa last season. Thank you.)

Dallas (-7.5) over Chicago
I certainly don't think Dallas is a Super Bowl team, but if they can clean up even half the mistakes they made against the Redskins, they can beat Chicago. The Bears stink.

Philadephia (-6) over Detroit
Like everyone else, I'd be tempted to pick Detroit . . . if Matthew Stafford were going to play. Since he isn't, the Lions have no offense whatsoever; although Detroit's defense is good, Philadelphia's going to score someway, somehow (read: Michael Vick will run it in at some point). I don't know if that's true for Detroit.

Green Bay (-13) over Buffalo
I can't in good conscience not pick the Packers to beat the Bills by two touchdowns. It's just common sense.

Tennessee (-5) over Pittsburgh
Despite the Steelers' (overtime) win last week, I'm still not buying them--even once they get their QB back. In other news, Tennessee might be really good. (I was going to type "really, really good" but one can only give out so many modifiers for a win over the Raiders.)

Miami (+5.5) over Minnesota
I have to admit, I think Bill Simmons talked me into this one. He's been talking all offseason about Minny having to open against the Saints and then having this "tough matchup" against the Dolphins and very possibly starting 0-2. Rightly or wrongly, I'm buying it.

Carolina (-3.5) over Tampa Bay
Tampa may have already gotten their one win of the season.

Seattle (+3.5) over Denver
I got into a debate at a bar last night over this game; I was arguing that Denver can pull it off at home; she thought The Weasel Pete Carroll would sneak out another win, particularly since Denver is terrible. Imagine my surprise when I looked up my picks this morning and found that I'd taken Seattle. Or maybe I was just taking the points? Yes, I think that's where I was coming from when I made the picks: Denver may well win (I don't like Seattle to win away from home this season), but I like their odds to win by a field goal or less. There you have it: I trust my judgment from the day I made the picks more than from when I got into a debate at a bar.

Oakland (-3.5) over St. Louis
At this point, I can't forsee ever picking the Rams this season. Well, maybe when they play Tampa.

New England (-2.5) over New York Jets
So on the one hand, I don't want to put too much stock into Week 1. On the other hand, I don't want to overthink it. One of these teams is in all likelihood better than the other, and I am picking that team.

San Diego (-7) over Jacksonville
I feel like there are no good options here. San Diego looked plain old bad last week; they have a history of starting the season poorly; and the size of the spread makes me a little nervous. But then Jacksonville is a team I expect to be, during the season overall, worse than San Diego, and I am told they're a bad road team--which has to be exacerbated by travelling that far west. San Diego: the less bad choice.

Washington (+3) over Houston
I am basing this pick on exactly one thing: Houston will have a letdown from their huge win over the Colts last week. I believe that very strongly.

Indianapolis (-5.5) over New York Giants
I'm not at ease over this pick, but if I have to make a decision between Peyton and Eli . . . .

New Orleans (-5.5) over San Francisco
Both Peter King (who I think is OK) and Adam Schefter (who I think is a genius) are picking the 49ers to upset. This surprises me, because . . . really? The Saints' last game was so long ago, I barely even remember it. They've had all that time to prepare for a team that's in total disarray. I can't come up with one believable reason to pick San Francisco. I don't get it, Peter King and Adam Schefter. I just don't get it.

Last week's record: 7-6-3 (Over .500! Yeah! Woo!)

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