Some Picks: NFL Week 1

I'm going to pick against the spread, because it's more fun. And I'm using Yahoo's picks competition numbers instead of ESPN's, because they get more frequently updated. Home team in italics.

Saints (-5) over Vikings

The Vikings have problems; the Saints don't.

Dolphins (-3) over Bills

Miami should be at least OK, while Buffalo is my pre-season pick for Worst Team in the NFL.

Lions (+6.5) over Bears

Detroit should be better this season. Chicago should be better, but won't be.

Titans (-6.5) over Raiders

At first, I was going with the Oakland, but then I realized I couldn't justify it here in writing. And if I can't make the case ("Jason Campbell" still sounds like an argument for the Raiders improving to mediocrity over the entire season, but doesn't really fly for this particular game.)

Patriots (-4.5) over Bengals

I just don't believe in the Bengals.

Panthers (+6.5) over Giants

This was my trickiest pick. At first glance, Giants by a touchdown over Carolina at home seems like a pretty easy bet. At second glance, you remember that this, the Giants' first opponent at their new stadium, was their last opponent at their old stadium, and the Panthers embarrassed them (though less than they embarrassed themselves). It should follow that the Giants will try not just to beat, but destroy them. Third glance! If the Giants were capable of doling out an important, emotional, meaningful beatdown, why didn't they do it last year against Carolina? I don't think the Giants will necessarily lose, but I'm thinking it might at least be embarrassingly close.

Falcons (-2.5) over Steelers

I am buying the Bill Simmons argument that Atlanta's going to be genuinely good this year, while the Steelers--I'm calling it--are still going to be lost even once Roethelisberger gets back. In related news, watching Roethelisberger in the pre-season finally gave me some more insight into how dog lovers feel about Michael Vick. I can barely stand to look at him.

Browns (+3) over Buccaneers

I don't know why Tampa is even favored here. Yes, Cleveland will be very bad, but Tampa will be very, very bad.

Broncos (+2.5) over Jaguars

The wild card: Bronco third-string quarterback/Jacksonville native Tim Tebow. If I were coaching the Broncos, well, I wouldn't have lobbied to draft Tim Tebow in the first place. But let's ignore that! If I were coaching the Broncos, I'd put Tim Tebow in (even just in specialty packages) early and often, to get the crowd on my side. Because it would totally work! Nobody cares about the Jags, and as we know, lots of people care very much about Tim Tebow.

Colts (-2.5) over Texans

Because it's the Colts playing the Texans. We can pretend it will be different this time, but I think we all know it won't.

Cardinals (-4) over Rams

I'm interested to see how Sam Bradford does, but I don't think he's winning his first start.

Packers (-3) over Eagles

Go Packers! Yeah! Woo!

49ers (-3) over Seahawks

I'll put it this way: I have three fantasy teams, one of them in an IDP league, and not one player for Seattle. In my IDP league, there is only one Seattle player owned, DT Craig Terrill.

Redskins (+3.5) over Cowboys

Go Mike Shanahan! Yeah! Woo!

Ravens (+2.5) over Jets

This is part wishful thinking, admittedly, but I also think the Ravens are going to be better than the Jets this year.

Chargers (-4.5) over Chiefs

It may sound crazy, but gee, I just think San Diego will be able to put up a lot of points at Kansas City.