Some Picks: NFL Week 2

Week 2's picks: in which I try not to put too much stock in Week 1's results, because it's only one week, but may have a hard time avoiding.

Atlanta (-6.5) over Arizona

The Falcons let me down in Week 1, but at least they have a moderately competent quarterback.

Baltimore (-2.5) over Cincinnati

Maybe (maybe) it was just the Jets' jaw-droppingly awful offense that made the Ravens' D look so good on Monday, but I can't believe it was just the Patriots' D that made the Bengals' offense look so terrible. Yes, Palmer and Ocho put up good fantasy stats last week, but since all those passes and points came in garbage time, the stats are just that: garbage.

Kansas City (+1.5) over Cleveland
I know KC had some lucky things going in their favor last week (weather that was worse for San Diego's offense than theirs, raucous home crowd, a special teams touchdown), but I saw some things I liked. Meanwhile, Cleveland lost to Tampa Bay. If you can't beat Tampa, who can you beat? (Please forget for a moment that Green Bay lost to Tampa last season. Thank you.)

Dallas (-7.5) over Chicago
I certainly don't think Dallas is a Super Bowl team, but if they can clean up even half the mistakes they made against the Redskins, they can beat Chicago. The Bears stink.

Philadephia (-6) over Detroit
Like everyone else, I'd be tempted to pick Detroit . . . if Matthew Stafford were going to play. Since he isn't, the Lions have no offense whatsoever; although Detroit's defense is good, Philadelphia's going to score someway, somehow (read: Michael Vick will run it in at some point). I don't know if that's true for Detroit.

Green Bay (-13) over Buffalo
I can't in good conscience not pick the Packers to beat the Bills by two touchdowns. It's just common sense.

Tennessee (-5) over Pittsburgh

Despite the Steelers' (overtime) win last week, I'm still not buying them--even once they get their QB back. In other news, Tennessee might be really good. (I was going to type "really, really good" but one can only give out so many modifiers for a win over the Raiders.)

Miami (+5.5) over Minnesota

I have to admit, I think Bill Simmons talked me into this one. He's been talking all offseason about Minny having to open against the Saints and then having this "tough matchup" against the Dolphins and very possibly starting 0-2. Rightly or wrongly, I'm buying it.

Carolina (-3.5) over Tampa Bay

Tampa may have already gotten their one win of the season.

Seattle (+3.5) over Denver

I got into a debate at a bar last night over this game; I was arguing that Denver can pull it off at home; she thought The Weasel Pete Carroll would sneak out another win, particularly since Denver is terrible. Imagine my surprise when I looked up my picks this morning and found that I'd taken Seattle. Or maybe I was just taking the points? Yes, I think that's where I was coming from when I made the picks: Denver may well win (I don't like Seattle to win away from home this season), but I like their odds to win by a field goal or less. There you have it: I trust my judgment from the day I made the picks more than from when I got into a debate at a bar.

Oakland (-3.5) over St. Louis

At this point, I can't forsee ever picking the Rams this season. Well, maybe when they play Tampa.

New England (-2.5) over New York Jets

So on the one hand, I don't want to put too much stock into Week 1. On the other hand, I don't want to overthink it. One of these teams is in all likelihood better than the other, and I am picking that team.

San Diego (-7) over Jacksonville

I feel like there are no good options here. San Diego looked plain old bad last week; they have a history of starting the season poorly; and the size of the spread makes me a little nervous. But then Jacksonville is a team I expect to be, during the season overall, worse than San Diego, and I am told they're a bad road team--which has to be exacerbated by travelling that far west. San Diego: the less bad choice.

Washington (+3) over Houston

I am basing this pick on exactly one thing: Houston will have a letdown from their huge win over the Colts last week. I believe that very strongly.

Indianapolis (-5.5) over New York Giants

I'm not at ease over this pick, but if I have to make a decision between Peyton and Eli . . . .

New Orleans (-5.5) over San Francisco

Both Peter King (who I think is OK) and Adam Schefter (who I think is a genius) are picking the 49ers to upset. This surprises me, because . . . really? The Saints' last game was so long ago, I barely even remember it. They've had all that time to prepare for a team that's in total disarray. I can't come up with one believable reason to pick San Francisco. I don't get it, Peter King and Adam Schefter. I just don't get it.

Last week's record: 7-6-3 (Over .500! Yeah! Woo!)

Linktastic!

First of all, something that is not annoying: a blog written by Tony Barnhart. You may recognize Barnhart from his role as sometime-studio-analyst/sometime-man-on-the-field reporter from CBS's college football coverage. (He's the white guy with dark hair and a real thick accent.) It turns out he has A) a Twitter account (@MrCFB) B) a weekly TV show on CBS College Sports (which is one of the first shows I've gotten attached to since getting cable last week) and C) a blog on the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. I like them all, so I want to link you to today's blog entry. My favorite point is where he gives props to Duke for keeping their game with Alabama at home, instead of going to a "neutral" site, where they'd get more cash but also many more 'Bama fans.

Now for one of this week's most annoying sports stories: not Reggie Bush vacating his Heisman, but the idea that Bush's Heisman to Vince Young. The only reason some sportswriters are yelling for that to happen is because they regret that they voted for Bush in the first place, when Vince Young owned him in the national championship after the award was given. Shut up, sportswriters. You don't get to use this as an excuse for a do-over. These points and many other good ones are made by "Dr. Saturday" in "Vince Young won't get Reggie Bush's Heisman, thank god". One last thing about this issue: it has always driven my dad crazy when sportscasters refer to "former Heisman trophy winners," because anyone who has won the Heisman trophy is still a Heisman trophy winner. But now, at least when people refer to Reggie Bush, "former Heisman trophy winner" will make logical sense. Hooray?

In a tie for this week's most annoying sports story is the thing about how a female TV reporter was (maybe) harrassed (for an unidentified value of harrassed) by Jets players in the Jets' locker room. This has turned into a whole deal about well, did she deserve it because she dresses scantily (it sounds like she was wearing a tight shirt and jeans, which doesn't sound professional, but doesn't sound pole-ready either), or should there even be female reporters in the locker room, and blah blah blah. Since she's not even formally complaining, it's all a mountain being made from a molehill. That's why I liked this article about what reporting from a locker room is actually like. To summarize: not sexy.

Some Picks: CFB Week 3

How badly did I do in my picks last week? Joke answer: so badly that President Obama is considering declaring them a federal disaster area. Real answer: so badly that I got fewer points than the person who forgot to pick the first twelve games.

The real one is sadder, isn't it?

In more Real Testimonials, here's a screenshot of my early-Saturday picks:

It got a little better later in the day, but things still aren't looking good for the returning champion. I'll just have to come roaring back! COMEBACK STARTS NOW!

Kansas (+5.5) over Southern Miss

Of course, the problems are A) that I'm doubting myself left and right and B) that a lot of the teams have been giving me mixed signals. Who's going to Southern Miss? Is it the KU team that lost to a team from a Dakota, or is it the one that beat Georgia Tech? I'm picking the second one, barely, because if Turner Gill could get his team over the North Dakota State loss, he can get them to accomplish this, too.

Probably.

North Carolina (-1.5) over Georgia Tech

I was all set to pick Georgia Tech, but then I started my little write-up in defense of it and realized I didn't believe myself. UNC has lost an assistant coach since they played LSU close, but they're gaining back at least one of their players. And it's at home. It looks like things are going to get worse for UNC before they get better, but I think they've still got some fight left in them.

Probably.

(OK, I'll stop.)

Maryland (+10) over West Virginia

I think West Virginia stinks, so Maryland should at least give them a close game.

Kansas State (-4) over Iowa State

Farmageddon! (No, they really call it that.) In the opening game of Big 12 conference play, I'll take the team that's won twice this season.

Georgia (-2.5) over Arkansas

Make that 12th-ranked Arkansas. But I don't think they'll hang onto that ranking after visiting the Bulldogs.

East Carolina (+19.5) over Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech: now there's a team that might not have fight left in them. It's good that they actually got a whole week off between games this time, but Ruffin McNeil's squad has the goods to keep it closer than three touchdowns.

BYU (+9) over Florida State

In a battle of confusing 1-1 teams, I feel like I should like the home team, but I don't.

Hawaii (+11) over Colorado

Hawaii played much better than expected against USC and Army; meanwhile, Colorado continues to be coached by Dan Hawkins.

Oklahoma (-17) over Air Force

OU's pantsing of Florida State has temporarily silenced this critic. Landry Jones is apparently good at passing the football and stuff.

USC (-12.5) over Minnesota

Both teams have underachieved, but Minnesota's expectations were already very, very low.

Wisconsin (-14) over Arizona State

The Badgers have had sloppy play at times, but they're a good football team. I doubt Arizona State is.

Nebraska (-3) over Washington

I can't see the Huskers losing this game (despite the travel/time zone difference), and I doubt they'd win by just one or two.

Florida (-14) over Tennessee

Well, when I said Florida would be in trouble in conference play, I didn't mean this game specifically. (Or the Vandy game. Or the Kentucky game. And we all know that South Carolina is prone to late-season swoons. So, basically, Florida should cruise to the conference championship game. But boy then they'll be in trouble.) As in last week's UT game (one that I picked correctly), there just couldn't be a spread high enough for me to pick them. Sorry, Mr. Football Gal.

TCU (-21.5) over Baylor

I do think Baylor is better than usual this year, but I have a rule that has in the past served me well when doing college picks: when picking games where a non-AQ team is involved and is favored, always take the over. When a team isn't in a BCS conference but wants to get to a BCS bowl, they can't just win their games, they have to throttle their opponents. Look for TCU to do so to Baylor.

Louisville (+19.5) over Oregon State

Because the universe hates Boise State.

Missouri (-14) over San Diego State

Yeah, I feel pretty good about this one.

Oklahoma State (-7) over Tulsa

After Oke State's too-close win over Troy last week, I do not feel that good about this one. What's your deal, Oke State?

Clemson (+7) over Auburn

It's the stank of the ACC vs. the stank of Gene Chizik. This is my "I know it's wrong, but I'm going with it" pick of the week, because I know in my heart that Auburn's poor choice of coach will win out eventually, even while I realize it probably won't be this week.

Mississippi State (+8) over LSU

I think I'm just going to keep picking against LSU. In my defense, Mississippi State is scrappy.

Texas A&M (off) over Florida International

And once it's over, the Aggies will finally start playing games that might be worth broadcasting!

Michigan State (-3.5) over Notre Dame

I don't know anything about MSU yet, but they're at home and Notre Dame still has some work to do, so why not?

Texas Tech (+3) over texas

I know I'm going out on a limb, but hear me out: Lubbock is a tough place to play. The 'Horns have shown some weakness so far. And can't you just see Tommy Tuberville all over ESPN, etc. on Monday, getting lauded for his first big upset at Tech? Can't you just see it? I can.

Iowa (-1.5) over Arizona

I think Iowa is a very good team this year.

Houston (-3) over UCLA

And it shouldn't even be close. I wonder how long Rick Neuheisel will have that job. 'Til December?

Last week's record: 10-15-1

Season so far: 20-31-2

My First Fantasy Football Week

I won't keep you in suspense: it did not go well.

The Larry Fitzjerries (Girl League)

This was the worst one. I started Kevin Kolb, and he earned one point before getting all concussed and stuff. What hurts is that my opponent was so weak that if I had started Dexter McCluster, who ended up having a big game for the Chiefs, I would have won anyway. In my defense, though, I don't think I could have known what a huge mistake starting C. J. Spiller instead of McCluster would be.

Helmet sticker: Antonio Gates, 13.6 points

Helmet un-sticker: Michael Crabtree, 1.2 points. C'mon.

The Fightin' AJ Hawks (FPL League)

This was the second worst one. I think my team might just stink, since I am bad at auctioning; I ended up with the second-least amount of points in the whole league, without the injury excuse I had in the aforementioned Girl League. Going into the last game last night, I was down by six and, in my game, had the only player left to go. I only needed six points from him. Unfortunately, that guy was Darren Sproles, whom I was apparently an idiot to start, since they constantly handed it off to Ryan Mathews instead.

Helmet sticker: Jahvid Best, 15 points

Helmet un-sticker: Darren Sproles, 0 points

The Bubby Bristers (People I Know League)

This was the least worst one. I ended up with the second-most points in the league, which gives me hope for the future, but was playing the person who had--by far--the most points in the league. His lead was so staggering by the end of Sunday that I gave all hope, totally demoralized. But then Antonio Gates and Jamaal Charles came up big on Monday night, briefly giving me hope of coming back. That hope didn't materialize, but the smaller margin of defeat softened the blow.

Helmet sticker: Jamaal Charles, 16 points

Helmet un-sticker*: Calvin Johnson, 4.5 points

*Since this is the IDP league, there were defensive guys with fewer points but who were still less disappointing. Darelle Revis scored me nothing, but that's the nature of how he plays and was a risk I took by playing him. "Megatron," however, made me sad.

NFL: Week 1

Hilarious:

The Cowboys losing! And it was embarassing too. It wasn't like the Redskins' offense was good--it wasn't--or that their defense was awesome--it wasn't--or even that Tony Romo single-handedly ruined everything--which has its upside, but frankly has happened so often that it's started to get a little sad. No, Dallas's offense as a whole just kept screwing stuff up. The egregious holding call that wiped the game-winning touchdown off the board has gotten the most attention, but that was really just emblematic of the whole game.

Not Hilarious:

The Lions losing. All the media and internet attention has been focused on Calvin Johnson's controversial non-TD catch at the end of the game, and that was sad. (I would really like my moment of celebration back, please.) Even if he had plain old dropped the ball, though, it still would have been depressing for a team that hasn't won on the road in years to lose a game their defense hung on to so doggedly for so long. And the saddest thing of all is losing Matthew Stafford, again, for who knows how long. And with three injuries in his first 17 games, I think it's time to start worrying about his career. I just wish something would go right for the Lions.

Hilarious:

Philip Rivers throwing a hissy at New Arrowhead in the rain. I know this video will be taken down soon, but it's too perfect:

Not Hilarious:

The Triumphant (?) Return of Michael Vick/the Non-Triumphant Debut of Kevin Kolb. Check out this anti-hilarious series of events:

• Despite having a promising young quarterback for whom he ditched Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid starts the game Kolb and Vick frequently, allowing neither one to get into a rhythm.
• Either because of the rhythm thing or because he's just not ready for the big stage, the vaunted Kolb looks like a deer in the headlights, and passes like one too.
• Clay Mathews slams Kolb into the ground face-first. He leaves the game, and it turns out he's concussed. (Note: Clay Mathews is awesome and was just doing his job. It's a just a shame that Kolb's arms weren't free to cushion his face.)
• The odious Michael Vick becomes the unquestioned leader of the team, and does not-totally-awful, setting up what is sure to be an endless and annoying QB debate.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy the Packers won (for the first time in Philadelphia since 1962), but it would have been nice if they'd done it by being the better team instead of the less-bad team.

Hilarious:

The total offensive ineptitude of the massively overhyped Jets. At the end of last season, I kind of liked the Jets. They have a big ol' loudmouth coach, which is a dying breed, and I felt Mark Sanchez redeemed his lousy regular season performance with a solid playoff run. But this summer, it was too much Jets, all the time. So I was pretty satisfied that they couldn't make anything happen in their game last night. (Their defense still looks fairly scary, though.) The only downside is that they got put in their place by the Ravens, who aren't super likable either.

Less Hilarious Than I Would Have Thought:

The decline of Brett Favre. I am a decided Brett Favre un-fan, but the realization that it's going to be a long and painful season for the Vikings and Favre in particular has not brought me the schadenfreude I would have expected. Don't get me wrong; I want the Vikings to lose a lot of games. It's just that Favre is already in a bad way physically, and because of his iron man streak, he's never going to take a week or two off to heal. He's going to play until he literally can't anymore, and I just worry it's all going to end with him not just too injured for football, but too injured for aspects of real life.

And that was Week 1! What did you all find hilarious or not hilarious?

College Football: Week 2

There's lots to say about the most recent weekend of college football, but let's see if I can round this up in three main points.

The ACC and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Saturday

In the preseason coaches' poll, Florida State was ranked #20. On Saturday, they lost to Oklahoma (a team that struggled against Utah State--not Utah, Utah State--in Week 1) by a score of 47-17. And seven of FSU's points came in garbage time. They are now "receiving votes" in the polls.

In preseason, North Carolina was ranked #18, and it seemed like this might really be Butch Davis's year. UNC is now under very serious investigation by the NCAA, and it might really be Butch Davis's year to get fired. They're 0-1 and receiving fewer votes than FSU.

In preseason, Georgia Tech was ranked #17. Then they got beaten by a KU team that had opened the season getting beaten by a team from a Dakota. They're now receiving three more votes than UNC.

In preseason, Miami was ranked #13. They just got beaten by Ohio State, although to be fair, OSU is regarded as the second-best team in the country, and Miami was expected to lose. They probably weren't expected to have their QB throw four interceptions or to score over half their points on kick returns, though. They've only dropped to #17.

In preseason, Virginia Tech was ranked #6. In Week 1, they lost a great game to Boise State, which dropped them a bit, but hey, Boise State is good. This week, they lost to James Madison, an FCS team, and became only the second ranked team ever to lose to an opponent from that level (the first was of course Michigan losing to Appalachian State in 2007). It's an utter disaster for A) Virginia Tech, which is now 0-2 to start the season and totally embarrassed B) the ACC, which has seen its most likely national title contender go down in flames and C) Boise State, whose supposed "quality" win might now count for very little. Virginia Tech is now receiving exactly four votes in the coaches' poll (none in the AP), and keep in mind that Frank Beamer gets to vote and may well have put his team at #22 on his ballot.

I'm not even joking. I sincerely think that's what happened.

"Monster" Saturday: the Wrong Kind of Monster

ESPN promoted Saturday heavily as a day of clashes between titans (and presumably, good, close games). But Florida State got stomped by Oklahoma. Miami-Ohio State wasn't as close as the final score would make you think. Alabama throttled Penn State and perhaps would have throttled harder if not for Nick Saban's respect for Joe Pa. In other blowout news, I was pleasantly surprised when Tennessee and Oregon were tied at the end of the first half, and then unpleasantly unsurprised when UT did nothing in the second half, unless you count allowing Oregon to score 35 points "something." (Fun* fact: Oregon has scored 120 points in 120 minutes of play.)

*Fun, depending whether your team of choice plays Oregon or not.

On the other hand, there were plenty of games that should have been blow-outs that were not. I already told you my feelings about West Virginia's near-loss to Marshall, so suffice it to say it's ridiculous that they climbed a spot in both polls, regardless of who else lost this week. Florida's final score against South Florida looks OK, but they looked bad in the first half. Conference play will not be kind. Similarly, Wisconsin's victory margin over San Jose State doesn't seem too bad, but the Badgers had some sloppy play that would not go unpunished in Big Ten games.

This was another week with two FCS upsets over BCS-conference opponents, for besides the James Madison takedown of Va Tech, Minnesota managed to lose to a team from a Dakota. This is the second time Tim Brewster has done that, so don't expect him to keep his job for long. Oh, and speaking of coaches who will soon be fired, with a 52-7 (fifty-two to seven!) loss to Cal, Dan Hawkins. Per usual.

How 'bout them Aggies?

Apparently, the Ags started sloppy, but I'm not going to complain about a score of 48-16. (If I were going to complain, I'd ask why La Tech scored double digits, or why the Ags turned it over so many times, but I'm not going to.)

And in an interesting development, as Stuart Mandel has pointed out, Arkansas is now WILDLY overrated. They've beaten Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe by 41 and 24, which is absolutely nothing to get excited about, considering it was Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe. Considering their mediocre performance last year, rankings in the low teens are just stupid. It's really too bad they play Georgia and Alabama before they play the Aggies, because if you lose to a highly ranked team, oh well, they were highly ranked. If you beat them, which is easier if they shouldn't be ranked, it gets you ranked. Hopefully, enough luster will stay on Arkansas through Week 5 that the Ags can benefit from it.

LeachWatch 2010: Mike Leach, Analyst

As I warned you, Mike Leach made his broadcast debut on Saturday--although I thought for some reason he'd be a pre-game studio analyst, he actually gave color commentary throughout the NC State-UCF game. Unfortunately, I didn't get to watch the whole game (it's kind of hard to justify keeping the TV on the UCF game when you've invited people over to watch Alabama-Penn State), but the parts I saw were pretty great.

Here's the thing: he didn't say anything particularly crazy. Really, he gave some pretty good insights. But he says fairly normal, intelligent things while sounding like he's drunk and looking like he's blind. (I hate to make it sound like I'm ragging on the blind here. That's not my intention. It's just that, instead of looking at the camera or his broadcast partner, Leach consistently looked at nothing. Nothing at all.)

For posterity, I'll post a screencap of the tweets I tweeted re: Mike Leach (and also one about my picks this week which, believe me, I'll elaborate on later.)

I will also refer you to this nice write-up from Sports by Brooks, which also includes a highlight video. Again, it's certainly not wacky, laugh-a-minute stuff, but it is authentic, unmistakeable Mike Leach.