When Will Favre Quit?

It's seemed like a pretty good bet ever since the Vikings started their season badly that Brett Favre will not finish the season with the team. His comments after the Vikings' seventh loss yesterday furthered this impression, and Brad Childress's firing today only underlines the instability in the organization. It's a matter of when, not if Favre quits in mid-season. So when will it be?

1. This week?

Why it might be: He just got beat down by the Packers. More importantly, Childress's job security was the best weapon Favre had. There were endless debates on Sunday-morning-type shows about whether Childress should bench Favre; this was a stupid question because whether he should have, he was never going to. His job was in danger, and the only chance he had to keep it was if Favre turned the team around. Tarvaris can't do it, and even if he could, Childress had pushed in all his chips on Favre. Interim coach Leslie Frazier doesn't have any chips in on Favre, and if Brett keeps playing as badly as he has, Frazier would be more able to bench him for performance.

Why it might not be: Favre got beat-down score-wise by the Packers, but not physically beaten as much as he has so far this season. Furthermore, it was no secret that he didn't like Childress, so he'll probably want to give it another shot with Leslie Frazier at the helm--especially considered how this season's other interim coach, Jason Garret, has apparently worked a miracle with the Cowboys.

Odds: 1 in 10

2. Next week?

Why it might be: Again, Leslie Frazier may well be willing to bench Favre if he plays badly (which he has been doing quite a bit this season). Favre would be livid if he were pulled from the game, and would probably refuse to play for Frazier ever again.

Why it might not be: They're playing the Redskins, a team bad enough that they might make the Vikings look good.

Odds: 1 in 7

3. Early December?

Why it might be: If the Vikings keep losing, and if the Bears and Packers and New Orleans and/or Tampa Bay keep winning, the Vikings could be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs as early as the night of December 5th. With the opportunity to go to the Super Bowl finally, officially over, Favre would have no reason to keep playing.

Why it might not be: The Vikings might win a few games with Frazier (they do get to play Buffalo right after Washington), and the Bears and Packers have tough ones coming up. In all probability, the Vikings will technically stay alive a little longer than this. (But is "technically" enough?)

Odds: 1 in 3

4. Right before the last game of the season?

Why it might be: The reason Favre came back at the beginning of the season instead of waiting until Week 5 (as would have been a good idea to keep healing the various and sundry body parts that are giving him trouble) must be that he's really invested in his consecutive starts streak. If he played through the Philadelphia game on December 26th, he would get to 300. Much like Bobby Knight quitting in midseason after getting to 900 wins despite insisting numbers didn't matter, Favre might just skip the season finale at Detroit after getting to a nice, round number.

Why it might not be: Either because at that point, he might as well finish the season (although it would depend on how much Philly's D hit him) or because he will already have quit.

Odds: 1 in 20

If anybody wants to start a betting pool, I'm taking December 6th. (Although I'm worried that's too late.)

Mega-Linktastic!

Programming note: I won't be doing a college football wrap-up this week, since I didn't get to see any of the games. If only I didn't have to work for a living!

Programming note II: I have barely begun to comb through the coverage of the Aggies' disastrous game on Saturday. Rest assured, I'm going to write it its own post.

Now on to the links!

Hear ye, hear ye! Colorado's going to the Pac-10 (Pac-12? When do we do the name changeover?) next year after all! (Probably!) I would like to speak for all of us remaining in the Big 12 when I say, "Good riddance!" (And I already re-tweeted this, but I wanted to re-reiterate Stewart Mandel's point that "No one should be more thrilled about the Colorado/2011 news than Washington State." That's as true as it is hilarious!) (And, and, here's an unrelated but delightful quote from the linked article: Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds told Orangebloods.com he'd like to see Notre Dame's sports - other than football - move from the Big East to the Big 12 if the Irish were ever unsatisfied with their current situation. Dodds has said Notre Dame could maintain its independence in football. Sources say that continues to be "a longshot." Gee, "sources," really? Thanks for that inside info.)

Speaking of Stewart Mandel, he does the college football equivalent of Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback on SI.com. I'm elevating it to Required Reading, and giving you the link here.

And to go back to conference news: I've been too busy ragging on the ACC to remember that the Big East is still even lamer than they are. The computers remembered, though! After factoring in both the computer numbers and the poll numbers, ESPN's current conference rankings have (no surprise) the SEC at the top; the Big 12, Pac-10, and Big Ten closely packed at 2, 3, and 4; and the Mountain West and the WAC comfortably ahead of, respectively, the ACC and Big East. It's mostly because the WAC has Boise State and the ACC has . . . . But the point is, don't forget that the Big East has even less.

If you thirst for more mid-major coverage, visit Dr. Saturday's column here. The part I liked best was his "Somewhat Arbitrary Mid-Major Top 10." A teaser: Boise State comes in at #2.

Have I mentioned recently how much I love Robbie Caldwell? Consider that a mention. Also, here's a video of him getting the game ball after Vandy's win over Ole Miss. Go Vandy! I *heart* your coach!

And now for NFL links!

Are the Texans now finally for real? Mike Lombardi thinks so, and I think I believe him. He also points out that Cleveland's upcoming slate of games is a murder schedule. He does not ask how many games Eric Mangini will last, but I'm asking.

If you only read one Brett Favre article this season (and I wouldn't blame you), read this one by Jason Whitlock. It poses the question of whether Favre will even finish out this season, and makes a fairly convincing case for "no." I still think Favre's biggest motivating factor at the moment is his iron man streak, but Whitlock makes some excellent points about the Vikings this season.

Those are my only NFL links. I feel like there should be more, but I get most of my articles through Twitter, and I have a very high college-to-NFL follow ratio. Does anybody have any recommendations for NFL writers I should follow on Twitter? (Note: I've tried Chris Mortenson and Peter King before, but I've found them both to tweet with more quantity than quality.)

NFL: Week 1

Hilarious:

The Cowboys losing! And it was embarassing too. It wasn't like the Redskins' offense was good--it wasn't--or that their defense was awesome--it wasn't--or even that Tony Romo single-handedly ruined everything--which has its upside, but frankly has happened so often that it's started to get a little sad. No, Dallas's offense as a whole just kept screwing stuff up. The egregious holding call that wiped the game-winning touchdown off the board has gotten the most attention, but that was really just emblematic of the whole game.

Not Hilarious:

The Lions losing. All the media and internet attention has been focused on Calvin Johnson's controversial non-TD catch at the end of the game, and that was sad. (I would really like my moment of celebration back, please.) Even if he had plain old dropped the ball, though, it still would have been depressing for a team that hasn't won on the road in years to lose a game their defense hung on to so doggedly for so long. And the saddest thing of all is losing Matthew Stafford, again, for who knows how long. And with three injuries in his first 17 games, I think it's time to start worrying about his career. I just wish something would go right for the Lions.

Hilarious:

Philip Rivers throwing a hissy at New Arrowhead in the rain. I know this video will be taken down soon, but it's too perfect:

Not Hilarious:

The Triumphant (?) Return of Michael Vick/the Non-Triumphant Debut of Kevin Kolb. Check out this anti-hilarious series of events:

• Despite having a promising young quarterback for whom he ditched Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid starts the game Kolb and Vick frequently, allowing neither one to get into a rhythm.
• Either because of the rhythm thing or because he's just not ready for the big stage, the vaunted Kolb looks like a deer in the headlights, and passes like one too.
• Clay Mathews slams Kolb into the ground face-first. He leaves the game, and it turns out he's concussed. (Note: Clay Mathews is awesome and was just doing his job. It's a just a shame that Kolb's arms weren't free to cushion his face.)
• The odious Michael Vick becomes the unquestioned leader of the team, and does not-totally-awful, setting up what is sure to be an endless and annoying QB debate.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy the Packers won (for the first time in Philadelphia since 1962), but it would have been nice if they'd done it by being the better team instead of the less-bad team.

Hilarious:

The total offensive ineptitude of the massively overhyped Jets. At the end of last season, I kind of liked the Jets. They have a big ol' loudmouth coach, which is a dying breed, and I felt Mark Sanchez redeemed his lousy regular season performance with a solid playoff run. But this summer, it was too much Jets, all the time. So I was pretty satisfied that they couldn't make anything happen in their game last night. (Their defense still looks fairly scary, though.) The only downside is that they got put in their place by the Ravens, who aren't super likable either.

Less Hilarious Than I Would Have Thought:

The decline of Brett Favre. I am a decided Brett Favre un-fan, but the realization that it's going to be a long and painful season for the Vikings and Favre in particular has not brought me the schadenfreude I would have expected. Don't get me wrong; I want the Vikings to lose a lot of games. It's just that Favre is already in a bad way physically, and because of his iron man streak, he's never going to take a week or two off to heal. He's going to play until he literally can't anymore, and I just worry it's all going to end with him not just too injured for football, but too injured for aspects of real life.

And that was Week 1! What did you all find hilarious or not hilarious?

It's Come to This: a Brett Favre Post

Brett Favre might retire, again, for realsies this time, as was first reported this morning by Adam Shefter. (Who, by the way, direct messaged me on Twitter last night! I replied to a tweet he made, and then he responded in direct message form, which I have set to get sent to my phone, so it was practically like Adam Shefter texted me! I was super excited about it last night but didn't know how I should brag. If I had tweeted "OMG @Adam_Shefter DMed me!" he might have seen it and been like, "Nerd!" If I'd put up a status update on Facebook, almost all of my friends would have been like, "Who the crap is Adam Shefter? What a nerd!" And if I'd just gone into the other room to tell my husband, he would have been all, "OK, but why did you wake me up? I've got to work in the morning." And he probably wouldn't have called me a nerd, but it might be implied.)

Do I believe Favre is actually going to pull the trigger this time? No. Does anyone?

It's possible that his ankle really is bad and he really doesn't think he can play another season. It is, however, far more possible that he cannot stand that nobody's been reporting on him all off season and that this is yet another narcissistic ploy to get attention. It's totally working, too. Sports Illustrated is running all this stuff about his greatest games and his amazing stats (my favorite: all time high interceptions), ESPN is (apparently, I don't have cable) doing All-Favre Coverage, and hey, even I am writing this Brett Favre post.

Another factor is the "it's just a ploy" theory: we already know the guy really hates training camp. Maybe this season he doesn't want to do pre-season games either. That's why I'm not buying that he's done until and unless I see somebody else start for the Vikings against the Saints on September 9th. (Some people think that he might stage a "heroic" mid-season comeback if things look favorable in November or so, but I don't think there's any way he's giving up the iron man streak until he's done for good.)

Now, if he does finally go ahead and quit, Vikings fans should be quite unhappy that ol' Brett didn't figure this out at the beginning of the off season, when there were numerous decent-to-middling quarterbacks available. But if Favre ditches them now, they're stuck with Tarvaris & Sage. Which, incidentally, sounds like a cocktail my cocktail-inventing friend would invent. I'm no mixologist, but obviously, it would be purple and have a sage leaf stuck in it; ideally, it would be served in some sort of drinking horn; and as for taste, I'd go with bitter, bitter defeat.

In conclusion: I think he'll play this season. He won't show up in Minnesota until mid-August (likely after the Vikings have upped his salary a bit). My mind might change a little bit if he gives a press conference instead of just texting teammates and encouraging rumors to swirl, but it's not like he hasn't given retirement press conferences before. I feel a little bad for the Vikings for having to deal with the uncertainty, but on the other hand, that's what they get for signing him in the first place.