Some Picks: NFL Week 6

Chicago (off) over Seattle

No line here yet, since we still don't know if Jay Cutler will be back from the concussion, but a line would have to be really high for me to pick Seattle. One of my personal Football 2010 Picks Rules: pick Seattle at home, pick against them on the road.

Miami (off) over Green Bay

Green Bay also has a quarterback concussion problem. Also . . . they sort of suck.

St. Louis (+8.5) over San Diego

If San Diego can lose to Oakland, they can fail to beat St. Louis by 9.

Baltimore (+2.5) over New England

Serious question: why is New England favored here?

Detroit (+10) over New York Giants

I'm not going to pretend I know how the Giants are going to perform any given week, but I know that Detroit can lose by less than ten. Don't get me wrong; they'll lose. Just maybe by seven or something.

Atlanta (off) over Philadelphia

Vick or Kolb, the Eagles aren't as good as Atlanta.

Pittsburgh (-14) over Cleveland

With their QB back, Pittsburgh will go out of its way to score points. Also, Cleveland is probably starting Colt McCoy? If I were a Browns fan, I'd be horrified. . . . More horrified than usual.

Tampa Bay (+5) over New Orleans

I don't think New Orleans is good, you guys. And Tampa Bay is, at worst, scrappy. Gotta like scrappy.

Kansas City (+4.5) over Houston

This is pretty much a repeat of my last pick, except that I have more evidence that KC is OK and less evidence that Houston is any good. They don't have many strengths, and they can't count on the ones they're supposed to have (e.g. Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub).

New York Jets (-3) over Denver

I went from believing in the Jets to not believing. Then to believing. And after Monday night's game . . . I'd call it ambivalent. Sure, they won, but why didn't they score more during those first three quarters? They can take Denver, though.

Oakland (+6.5) over San Francisco

OK, seriously, why is San Francisco favored? They are 0-5. They are inventing new ways to lose. I refuse to pick the 49ers until after they finally win one. I refuse.

Dallas (+2) over Minnesota

Who can choke this game away harder?

Indianapolis (-3) over Washington

I know the Colts are kind of struggling, but they can pull this out.

Jacksonville (+3) over Tennessee

I told myself I was going to pick the opposite of what should happen for all of the Titans' games . . . but then I thought Dallas would beat them, and I picked Dallas. Never again!

last week's record: 8-6

season to date: 37-35

Some Picks: NFL Week 3

I'm gonna keep plugging away at the ol' picks. I know they're going to get good at some point. One change I will make: no more shots at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, since they are the 2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I won't make fun of them anymore. Until they finally start losing.

Kansas City (+2.5) over San Francisco

I really shouldn't be picking the 49ers to go 0-3, because they're better than that. But I'm still not over how well the crowd did at the Chiefs' last home game. Sigh. I wish the spread was bigger, so I could pick the Chiefs without having to believe they would win.

Detroit (+11) over Minnesota

I hope, although I do not believe, that the Lions will win this game. I'm plain old sure they'll keep it closer than 11 points, though.

New England (-14) over Buffalo

It remains a good idea to pick the Bills to lose by two touchdowns.

New Orleans (-4) over Atlanta

I can't dig up a qualm to feel about this one.

New York Giants (-3) over Tennessee

I don't think any of us knows how good either of these teams are. Each has had one dominant win and one embarrassing loss. The Giants are the more stable team (although I think pulling Vince Young last week reflects more on Jeff Fisher than on Vince) and they're at home, so let's assume they'll get it done.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) over Tampa Bay

Here's a matchup of extremely unlikely 2-0 teams. I didn't expect Pittsburgh to beat Atlanta or Tennessee; I didn't expect Tampa to beat Cleveland or Carolina. Even so--before the season, I expected the Steelers to beat the Bucs, and I'm going to stick with it.

Cincinnati (-3) over Carolina

Apparently, the Panthers are just bad. The Bengals aren't as good as they should be, but they're not as bad as Carolina (especially a Carolina starting a rookie QB).

Cleveland (+10.5) over Baltimore

I'd fall right over if the Browns won this game, but the Ravens do not seem to be a team built for blowouts. Also, Joe Flacco: not actually good? Discuss.

Houston (-3) over Dallas

Besides the Colts, I can't think of another team the Texans would want to beat more than the Cowboys. I mean, you'd want to beat the Cowboys if you were the Texans, right? That and Dallas's two abysmal performances outweigh Dallas's terrible desperation to win a game.

Washington (-3.5) over St. Louis

I'm not going to start buying Sam Bradford, Franchise Savior until and unless I absolutely have to. Also, I know the Redskins haven't looked great getting to 1-1, but isn't that spread pretty small?

Philadelphia (-3) over Jacksonville

I'm probably underestimating Jacksonville because I get them confused with Carolina. I really can't keep those teams straight. It's a real problem.

Indianapolis (-5.5) over Denver

Indy is still good; they just lost their first game to a team that cared much more than they did. (And is also good.) Denver is, at best, mediocre.

Oakland (+4) over Arizona

We officially have to put Jason Campbell in the Matt Leinart drawer, don't we? I had thought he had some untapped potential, maybe just needed to build some confidence--but no. The Raiders look to get a little better by starting Gradkowski, and I truly believe the Cardinals are terrible. I am not giving up on the Raiders, at least not this week.

Seattle (+5.5) over San Diego

Here I go again, putting a lot of stock in a really good Week 1 home performance. It's not just that, though--San Diego still has more losses to go to have one of their trademark bad beginnings of the season. I think it's in Norv's contract or something.

New York Jets (+2.5) over Miami

This is another hard one to get a feel for. It's equally easy to imagine the Jets playing sharply and the Jets falling on their faces (because we've seen both happen already this season). Miami, meanwhile, has won both their games--on the road--but not by impressive margins. I think the Jets have higher potential, though.

Chicago (+3) over Green Bay

As a Packer fan, I am super super nervous about this game, and the pick reflects that. My reasons for taking Chicago/points: the Packers, despite their obvious strengths, also have obvious weaknesses (the o-line and the run game), and the Bears have enough game tape to realize that. This new Chicago offense is still riding high, and while I think they'll crash/burn sooner or later, it will probably at least be later than Week 3. Finally, the Packers started last season badly, and I've been worried overall that they'll be shaky for the first several weeks of this season. Even a close win by the Packers will be hard on already frayed football nerves, so I hope this pick is wrong. (Looking at my record, the odds of that are good!)

Last week's record: 6-9-1

Season to date: 13-15-4

Some Picks: NFL Week 2

Week 2's picks: in which I try not to put too much stock in Week 1's results, because it's only one week, but may have a hard time avoiding.

Atlanta (-6.5) over Arizona

The Falcons let me down in Week 1, but at least they have a moderately competent quarterback.

Baltimore (-2.5) over Cincinnati

Maybe (maybe) it was just the Jets' jaw-droppingly awful offense that made the Ravens' D look so good on Monday, but I can't believe it was just the Patriots' D that made the Bengals' offense look so terrible. Yes, Palmer and Ocho put up good fantasy stats last week, but since all those passes and points came in garbage time, the stats are just that: garbage.

Kansas City (+1.5) over Cleveland
I know KC had some lucky things going in their favor last week (weather that was worse for San Diego's offense than theirs, raucous home crowd, a special teams touchdown), but I saw some things I liked. Meanwhile, Cleveland lost to Tampa Bay. If you can't beat Tampa, who can you beat? (Please forget for a moment that Green Bay lost to Tampa last season. Thank you.)

Dallas (-7.5) over Chicago
I certainly don't think Dallas is a Super Bowl team, but if they can clean up even half the mistakes they made against the Redskins, they can beat Chicago. The Bears stink.

Philadephia (-6) over Detroit
Like everyone else, I'd be tempted to pick Detroit . . . if Matthew Stafford were going to play. Since he isn't, the Lions have no offense whatsoever; although Detroit's defense is good, Philadelphia's going to score someway, somehow (read: Michael Vick will run it in at some point). I don't know if that's true for Detroit.

Green Bay (-13) over Buffalo
I can't in good conscience not pick the Packers to beat the Bills by two touchdowns. It's just common sense.

Tennessee (-5) over Pittsburgh

Despite the Steelers' (overtime) win last week, I'm still not buying them--even once they get their QB back. In other news, Tennessee might be really good. (I was going to type "really, really good" but one can only give out so many modifiers for a win over the Raiders.)

Miami (+5.5) over Minnesota

I have to admit, I think Bill Simmons talked me into this one. He's been talking all offseason about Minny having to open against the Saints and then having this "tough matchup" against the Dolphins and very possibly starting 0-2. Rightly or wrongly, I'm buying it.

Carolina (-3.5) over Tampa Bay

Tampa may have already gotten their one win of the season.

Seattle (+3.5) over Denver

I got into a debate at a bar last night over this game; I was arguing that Denver can pull it off at home; she thought The Weasel Pete Carroll would sneak out another win, particularly since Denver is terrible. Imagine my surprise when I looked up my picks this morning and found that I'd taken Seattle. Or maybe I was just taking the points? Yes, I think that's where I was coming from when I made the picks: Denver may well win (I don't like Seattle to win away from home this season), but I like their odds to win by a field goal or less. There you have it: I trust my judgment from the day I made the picks more than from when I got into a debate at a bar.

Oakland (-3.5) over St. Louis

At this point, I can't forsee ever picking the Rams this season. Well, maybe when they play Tampa.

New England (-2.5) over New York Jets

So on the one hand, I don't want to put too much stock into Week 1. On the other hand, I don't want to overthink it. One of these teams is in all likelihood better than the other, and I am picking that team.

San Diego (-7) over Jacksonville

I feel like there are no good options here. San Diego looked plain old bad last week; they have a history of starting the season poorly; and the size of the spread makes me a little nervous. But then Jacksonville is a team I expect to be, during the season overall, worse than San Diego, and I am told they're a bad road team--which has to be exacerbated by travelling that far west. San Diego: the less bad choice.

Washington (+3) over Houston

I am basing this pick on exactly one thing: Houston will have a letdown from their huge win over the Colts last week. I believe that very strongly.

Indianapolis (-5.5) over New York Giants

I'm not at ease over this pick, but if I have to make a decision between Peyton and Eli . . . .

New Orleans (-5.5) over San Francisco

Both Peter King (who I think is OK) and Adam Schefter (who I think is a genius) are picking the 49ers to upset. This surprises me, because . . . really? The Saints' last game was so long ago, I barely even remember it. They've had all that time to prepare for a team that's in total disarray. I can't come up with one believable reason to pick San Francisco. I don't get it, Peter King and Adam Schefter. I just don't get it.

Last week's record: 7-6-3 (Over .500! Yeah! Woo!)

Some Picks: CFB Week 3

How badly did I do in my picks last week? Joke answer: so badly that President Obama is considering declaring them a federal disaster area. Real answer: so badly that I got fewer points than the person who forgot to pick the first twelve games.

The real one is sadder, isn't it?

In more Real Testimonials, here's a screenshot of my early-Saturday picks:

It got a little better later in the day, but things still aren't looking good for the returning champion. I'll just have to come roaring back! COMEBACK STARTS NOW!

Kansas (+5.5) over Southern Miss

Of course, the problems are A) that I'm doubting myself left and right and B) that a lot of the teams have been giving me mixed signals. Who's going to Southern Miss? Is it the KU team that lost to a team from a Dakota, or is it the one that beat Georgia Tech? I'm picking the second one, barely, because if Turner Gill could get his team over the North Dakota State loss, he can get them to accomplish this, too.

Probably.

North Carolina (-1.5) over Georgia Tech

I was all set to pick Georgia Tech, but then I started my little write-up in defense of it and realized I didn't believe myself. UNC has lost an assistant coach since they played LSU close, but they're gaining back at least one of their players. And it's at home. It looks like things are going to get worse for UNC before they get better, but I think they've still got some fight left in them.

Probably.

(OK, I'll stop.)

Maryland (+10) over West Virginia

I think West Virginia stinks, so Maryland should at least give them a close game.

Kansas State (-4) over Iowa State

Farmageddon! (No, they really call it that.) In the opening game of Big 12 conference play, I'll take the team that's won twice this season.

Georgia (-2.5) over Arkansas

Make that 12th-ranked Arkansas. But I don't think they'll hang onto that ranking after visiting the Bulldogs.

East Carolina (+19.5) over Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech: now there's a team that might not have fight left in them. It's good that they actually got a whole week off between games this time, but Ruffin McNeil's squad has the goods to keep it closer than three touchdowns.

BYU (+9) over Florida State

In a battle of confusing 1-1 teams, I feel like I should like the home team, but I don't.

Hawaii (+11) over Colorado

Hawaii played much better than expected against USC and Army; meanwhile, Colorado continues to be coached by Dan Hawkins.

Oklahoma (-17) over Air Force

OU's pantsing of Florida State has temporarily silenced this critic. Landry Jones is apparently good at passing the football and stuff.

USC (-12.5) over Minnesota

Both teams have underachieved, but Minnesota's expectations were already very, very low.

Wisconsin (-14) over Arizona State

The Badgers have had sloppy play at times, but they're a good football team. I doubt Arizona State is.

Nebraska (-3) over Washington

I can't see the Huskers losing this game (despite the travel/time zone difference), and I doubt they'd win by just one or two.

Florida (-14) over Tennessee

Well, when I said Florida would be in trouble in conference play, I didn't mean this game specifically. (Or the Vandy game. Or the Kentucky game. And we all know that South Carolina is prone to late-season swoons. So, basically, Florida should cruise to the conference championship game. But boy then they'll be in trouble.) As in last week's UT game (one that I picked correctly), there just couldn't be a spread high enough for me to pick them. Sorry, Mr. Football Gal.

TCU (-21.5) over Baylor

I do think Baylor is better than usual this year, but I have a rule that has in the past served me well when doing college picks: when picking games where a non-AQ team is involved and is favored, always take the over. When a team isn't in a BCS conference but wants to get to a BCS bowl, they can't just win their games, they have to throttle their opponents. Look for TCU to do so to Baylor.

Louisville (+19.5) over Oregon State

Because the universe hates Boise State.

Missouri (-14) over San Diego State

Yeah, I feel pretty good about this one.

Oklahoma State (-7) over Tulsa

After Oke State's too-close win over Troy last week, I do not feel that good about this one. What's your deal, Oke State?

Clemson (+7) over Auburn

It's the stank of the ACC vs. the stank of Gene Chizik. This is my "I know it's wrong, but I'm going with it" pick of the week, because I know in my heart that Auburn's poor choice of coach will win out eventually, even while I realize it probably won't be this week.

Mississippi State (+8) over LSU

I think I'm just going to keep picking against LSU. In my defense, Mississippi State is scrappy.

Texas A&M (off) over Florida International

And once it's over, the Aggies will finally start playing games that might be worth broadcasting!

Michigan State (-3.5) over Notre Dame

I don't know anything about MSU yet, but they're at home and Notre Dame still has some work to do, so why not?

Texas Tech (+3) over texas

I know I'm going out on a limb, but hear me out: Lubbock is a tough place to play. The 'Horns have shown some weakness so far. And can't you just see Tommy Tuberville all over ESPN, etc. on Monday, getting lauded for his first big upset at Tech? Can't you just see it? I can.

Iowa (-1.5) over Arizona

I think Iowa is a very good team this year.

Houston (-3) over UCLA

And it shouldn't even be close. I wonder how long Rick Neuheisel will have that job. 'Til December?

Last week's record: 10-15-1

Season so far: 20-31-2

Some Picks: CFB Week 2

Again picking against the spread because it's more fun; again using Yahoo's numbers. I'm also relying on the Yahoo picks contest for the slate. My contest commissioner chose Yahoo standard + Big 12, since we're all a bunch of Kansans. Home team in italics.

Duke (+5.5) over Wake Forest

Look, I don't know anything about the ACC except that Duke is even more terrible than the rest of them, but I like their coach, David Cutcliffe. (This is the first of this week's "Why not?" picks.)

Georgia Tech (-14) over Kansas

After last week's performance by KU, this point spread could be 35 and I'd still take Georgia Tech.

Georgia (+3) over South Carolina

South Carolina under Steve Spurrier disappoints every year. Every year. (I know the same applies to Georgia under Mark Richt, but to a lesser extent.)

Army (-2.5) over Hawaii

It'll be hard for Hawaii's players to pull it out, considering the jet lag.

South Florida (+15.5) over Florida

I know, I know--I'm buying too much into Florida's Keystone Kops-like performance in Week 1. But I'm not picking USF to win, just to beat the spread. Although it would be hilarious if they also won.

Nebraska (-28.5) over Idaho

I picked Nebraska not to overcome the spread against Western Kentucky, since I have little faith in the Huskers' offense. I'm not making that mistake in any more of their games against The Weak Sisters of the Poor.

Florida State (+7.5) over Oklahoma

Sure, Florida State has a new coach, but I don't think Oklahoma has the chops this season. Even if Oklahoma's home field magic holds up, I could see FSU playing them close.

Iowa State (+13.5) over Iowa

Again, I'm picturing this as a close game, not an upset. Iowa State will want this pretty bad, and Iowa isn't a scoring machine.

Miami (+9) over Ohio State

Broken record time here, but I think Miami will play them closer than that. Ohio State should win, but by more than a touchdown? I don't see it.

Cal (-9) over Colorado

I will bet against Dan Hawkins at all opportunities.

Notre Dame (-4) over Michigan

If the Fighting Brian Kellys can stop shiny new Michigan QB Denard Robinson (idea 1: hit 'im), they're set. I don't think Michigan has anything else.

BYU (+1) over Air Force

Because.

Missouri (off) over McNeese State

Because duh.

Oklahoma State (-13.5) over Troy

The Lesser Okies proved last week that they can score some points. They should do so again.

Washington (-13.5) over Syracuse

Wait, Syracuse is still in a major conference? . . . Wait, the Big East is still a "major" conference? Wonders never cease. Also, can someone explain to me why Jake Locker is a Heisman candidate? It's fine if NFL scouts want to lose their minds over some lackluster QB, just because he's big and has a strong arm. That's their business. But a college award ought to be based on college performance.

Oregon (-12) over Tennessee

This is another one where the spread just couldn't be high enough for me to pick against Oregon. This should be the week that the horrors begin for the Vols.

Vanderbilt (+9.5) over LSU

This pick is wrong. I know that. It's just that I love Robbie Caldwell (who is, by the way, on Twitter (@RobbieCaldwell, fittingly) and is adorable) and I can't stand Les Miles and I want to believe! When (and if?) Vandy gets blown out on Saturday, I will start picking their games sensibly, I promise.

Alabama (-12) over Penn State

I went back and forth on this one. On the one hand, Alabama isn't really a blow-out kind of team. Will they really beat a Big Ten opponent by two touchdowns? On the other hand, Penn State looked a little shaky against Youngstown State, which is never good. In the end, I let 'Bama's homefield advantage swing it for me.

Baylor (+16.5) over Buffalo

Baylor should really let Robert Griffin go nuts on as many teams as possible. Buffalo's a nice soft target.

Wyoming (+29.5) over texas

Wyoming played texas tough last year and, while I don't want to trivialize the death of Wyoming player Ruben Narcisse, but I feel like his teammates will play harder to honor his memory. Tragedy seems to galvanize teams.

Texas A&M (-19.5) over Louisiana Tech

If Jerrod and co. can't hang 30 or 40 points on La Tech, then they're not who I thought they were.

Kansas State (off) over Missouri State

A classic Bill Snyder matchup!

UCF (-3.5) over N. C. State

I have no strong feelings about this. (Does anyone?)

New Mexico (+24.5) over Texas Tech

Not only does Tech have a couple of kinks in their offense to work out, but New Mexico will be playing with Hurt Feelings. They should take those out on Tech (to the tune of losing by only a touchdown or two).

Ole Miss (-20.5) over Tulane

Speaking of taking out Hurt Feelings . . . .

USC (-19.5) over Virginia

Because it's Virginia.

Stanford (-6) over UCLA

If Stanford can't beat a team that K-State beat, they don't deserve to be ranked #25, that's for sure.

Record to date (in my picks contest, even though I didn't post them here): 10-15-1. (Week 1 was not good to me.)

Some Picks: NFL Week 1

I'm going to pick against the spread, because it's more fun. And I'm using Yahoo's picks competition numbers instead of ESPN's, because they get more frequently updated. Home team in italics.

Saints (-5) over Vikings

The Vikings have problems; the Saints don't.

Dolphins (-3) over Bills

Miami should be at least OK, while Buffalo is my pre-season pick for Worst Team in the NFL.

Lions (+6.5) over Bears

Detroit should be better this season. Chicago should be better, but won't be.

Titans (-6.5) over Raiders

At first, I was going with the Oakland, but then I realized I couldn't justify it here in writing. And if I can't make the case ("Jason Campbell" still sounds like an argument for the Raiders improving to mediocrity over the entire season, but doesn't really fly for this particular game.)

Patriots (-4.5) over Bengals

I just don't believe in the Bengals.

Panthers (+6.5) over Giants

This was my trickiest pick. At first glance, Giants by a touchdown over Carolina at home seems like a pretty easy bet. At second glance, you remember that this, the Giants' first opponent at their new stadium, was their last opponent at their old stadium, and the Panthers embarrassed them (though less than they embarrassed themselves). It should follow that the Giants will try not just to beat, but destroy them. Third glance! If the Giants were capable of doling out an important, emotional, meaningful beatdown, why didn't they do it last year against Carolina? I don't think the Giants will necessarily lose, but I'm thinking it might at least be embarrassingly close.

Falcons (-2.5) over Steelers

I am buying the Bill Simmons argument that Atlanta's going to be genuinely good this year, while the Steelers--I'm calling it--are still going to be lost even once Roethelisberger gets back. In related news, watching Roethelisberger in the pre-season finally gave me some more insight into how dog lovers feel about Michael Vick. I can barely stand to look at him.

Browns (+3) over Buccaneers

I don't know why Tampa is even favored here. Yes, Cleveland will be very bad, but Tampa will be very, very bad.

Broncos (+2.5) over Jaguars

The wild card: Bronco third-string quarterback/Jacksonville native Tim Tebow. If I were coaching the Broncos, well, I wouldn't have lobbied to draft Tim Tebow in the first place. But let's ignore that! If I were coaching the Broncos, I'd put Tim Tebow in (even just in specialty packages) early and often, to get the crowd on my side. Because it would totally work! Nobody cares about the Jags, and as we know, lots of people care very much about Tim Tebow.

Colts (-2.5) over Texans

Because it's the Colts playing the Texans. We can pretend it will be different this time, but I think we all know it won't.

Cardinals (-4) over Rams

I'm interested to see how Sam Bradford does, but I don't think he's winning his first start.

Packers (-3) over Eagles

Go Packers! Yeah! Woo!

49ers (-3) over Seahawks

I'll put it this way: I have three fantasy teams, one of them in an IDP league, and not one player for Seattle. In my IDP league, there is only one Seattle player owned, DT Craig Terrill.

Redskins (+3.5) over Cowboys

Go Mike Shanahan! Yeah! Woo!

Ravens (+2.5) over Jets

This is part wishful thinking, admittedly, but I also think the Ravens are going to be better than the Jets this year.

Chargers (-4.5) over Chiefs

It may sound crazy, but gee, I just think San Diego will be able to put up a lot of points at Kansas City.