"National" "Championship" Roundup!

It's that time again! Time for two teams chosen by subjective criteria by biased voters and flawed computer scores to play against each other in a game held so long after the regular season that all the momentum they had built up may well be gone! It's time for the "National" "Championship"!

Fortunately, this game actually should be pretty good. You'd have to be made of stone, or perhaps just indifferent to the sport of football (same difference?) not to be excited about the Auburn-Oregon matchup. These are two exciting teams with pants-crappingly dynamic offenses. If they score fewer than eighty combined points, we'll all be disappointed.

Auburn is the favorite and rightfully so. They've put up almost as many points as Oregon against tougher overall competition, and they will have the single best player on the field. However, no one should count Oregon out. Oregon's strongest single opponent, Stanford, finished the season better than any of Auburn's opponents; Oregon had fewer close victories; and the Ducks will have the second best player on the field.

I'm picking Oregon to win, because I believe they certainly can, and because I want them to. I really don't want to have to listen to Gary Danielson if the SEC makes it to five "championships" in a row. (Not that I want to listen to him anyway, but you know what I mean.)

My predicted first half score: Auburn 10, Oregon 7. Final score: Oregon 38, Auburn 37.

And now for a "National" "Championship" carnival of links:

See who professional football opinion-havers are picking in Dr. Saturday's BCS Prediction Thread!

Marvel at Pat Forde's comparison of the teams! (Ex: "Campus vibe: Crunchy/Preppy")

Be amazed by statistical analysis from Football Outsiders! (I admit, I couldn't make it through the whole thing, but I did pick up good nuggets like "The good news for the Ducks is, after tonight, they still won't have faced a truly elite defense" and "Of all the mind-blowing numbers to come out of Newton's Heisman-winning season, this might be the most likely to spread gray matter all over the wallpaper -- he's 19 for 19 through the air on game-opening drives.")

And finally, nod solemnly in agreement with Stewart Mandel's argument that the game needs to be pretty good, considering that it's been kind of an ugly season.

When Will Favre Quit?

It's seemed like a pretty good bet ever since the Vikings started their season badly that Brett Favre will not finish the season with the team. His comments after the Vikings' seventh loss yesterday furthered this impression, and Brad Childress's firing today only underlines the instability in the organization. It's a matter of when, not if Favre quits in mid-season. So when will it be?

1. This week?

Why it might be: He just got beat down by the Packers. More importantly, Childress's job security was the best weapon Favre had. There were endless debates on Sunday-morning-type shows about whether Childress should bench Favre; this was a stupid question because whether he should have, he was never going to. His job was in danger, and the only chance he had to keep it was if Favre turned the team around. Tarvaris can't do it, and even if he could, Childress had pushed in all his chips on Favre. Interim coach Leslie Frazier doesn't have any chips in on Favre, and if Brett keeps playing as badly as he has, Frazier would be more able to bench him for performance.

Why it might not be: Favre got beat-down score-wise by the Packers, but not physically beaten as much as he has so far this season. Furthermore, it was no secret that he didn't like Childress, so he'll probably want to give it another shot with Leslie Frazier at the helm--especially considered how this season's other interim coach, Jason Garret, has apparently worked a miracle with the Cowboys.

Odds: 1 in 10

2. Next week?

Why it might be: Again, Leslie Frazier may well be willing to bench Favre if he plays badly (which he has been doing quite a bit this season). Favre would be livid if he were pulled from the game, and would probably refuse to play for Frazier ever again.

Why it might not be: They're playing the Redskins, a team bad enough that they might make the Vikings look good.

Odds: 1 in 7

3. Early December?

Why it might be: If the Vikings keep losing, and if the Bears and Packers and New Orleans and/or Tampa Bay keep winning, the Vikings could be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs as early as the night of December 5th. With the opportunity to go to the Super Bowl finally, officially over, Favre would have no reason to keep playing.

Why it might not be: The Vikings might win a few games with Frazier (they do get to play Buffalo right after Washington), and the Bears and Packers have tough ones coming up. In all probability, the Vikings will technically stay alive a little longer than this. (But is "technically" enough?)

Odds: 1 in 3

4. Right before the last game of the season?

Why it might be: The reason Favre came back at the beginning of the season instead of waiting until Week 5 (as would have been a good idea to keep healing the various and sundry body parts that are giving him trouble) must be that he's really invested in his consecutive starts streak. If he played through the Philadelphia game on December 26th, he would get to 300. Much like Bobby Knight quitting in midseason after getting to 900 wins despite insisting numbers didn't matter, Favre might just skip the season finale at Detroit after getting to a nice, round number.

Why it might not be: Either because at that point, he might as well finish the season (although it would depend on how much Philly's D hit him) or because he will already have quit.

Odds: 1 in 20

If anybody wants to start a betting pool, I'm taking December 6th. (Although I'm worried that's too late.)

What's Going on in the Big 12?

Ah, parity. It's just the boring way to say "Everything is crazy!"

The South

Remember last week, when Baylor was all alone at the top of the division standings, and we were all like, "Whaaaaaa?" This week restored a little--a little--normality there, with Baylor falling to Oklahoma State on the field and in the standings. Of course, that leaves us with Oklahoma State as the favorite to represent the South in the championship game, which is still pretty weird.

Here's the thing about Baylor: they're better than we're used to them being, but they're still not great. Good for them for winning their entire North slate and a very, very down texas team, but losing to TCU, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State shows that they're not a brand new team.

As for Oklahoma State, I guess it turns out Mike Gundy is a better head coach than head coach/offensive coordinator. And that he made an excellent hire in Dana Holgerson as his new, external OC.

Speaking of great hires! I LOVE TIM DERUYTER, YOU GUYS. I'm not ready to dust off the Wrecking Crew name, but those multiple amazing goal-line stands make my heart go pitter-pat.

Ryan Tannehill has been good too, although frankly I'm relieved he hasn't been so mind-bogglingly good as to drag me into another Aggie QB crush. I've had my heart broken too many times. Too many times.

The team has clearly done better with Tannehill at the wheel than with Jerrod. However, I don't think it's because he's flat-out better than Jerrod. My theory is that Tannehill realizes that his job is to help the team win, whereas Jerrod may have been convinced that he had to carry the team. That in turn made him try too hard and force passes he didn't need to make. (It might be something else, like that the hype went to his head and he stopped working hard in practice, but I hope it's my more generous interpretation.)

As for our collective confusion over how t.u. is so bad, maybe we're overthinking things. It's possible that their weaknesses have been this big, or close to it, and that the weaknesses were just masked by excellent quarterback play. Vince Young and Colt McCoy are not just NFL players, but successful NFL starters. (I know Colt is just a few games in, but he's beaten Drew Brees and Tom Brady already. On a team that won five games last year. That's impressive.)

And then there are OU and Texas Tech, which both quite good at home and not as good away. It happens.

The North

The North division is much less topsy-turvy. As we expected, Nebraska's at the top, with Missouri as a solid second.

However, the Big 12 North did bring us yesterday's single craziest game, in which an abysmal KU team scored 35 points in the last twelve minutes of the fourth quarter to go from being down 45-17 to beating Colorado 52-45. Totally insane. Dan Hawkins should never get another head coaching job.

In other North news, both K-State and Iowa State are coming along nicely. It now seems reasonable to hope that they will not be dead weight in next year's 10-team conference. Thanks and gig'em, guys.

The future!

Which is to say, the near future. There are three weeks left of regular season conference play. Here are the standings as of today:

ESPN.com knows I like the Aggies the best.

There are fifteen conference games yet to play. I went through them and made my predictions, picking the apparent favorites (my most arguable conclusions: A&M over Baylor and t.u., Oke State over Oklahoma), and this is what I think the final standings will be:

North

Nebraska 7-1

Mizzou 6-2

K-State 4-4

Iowa State 4-4

KU 1-7

CU 0-8

South

Oklahoma State 7-1

A&M 5-3

OU 5-3

Baylor 4-4

Texas Tech 3-5

t.u. 2-6

So the only big change I see is Baylor continuing to fall--they may well beat A&M and/or OU in Waco, but I think it slightly likelier that they won't. That would give us Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska in the championship game, and while it's hard to beat the same team twice, it's still looking probable that Nebraska walks away with a championship in their last year in the league. Dang.

The only teams already out of the South race are Texas Tech and t.u. Okahoma, even though they're fourth right now, is in a better position than A&M and Baylor because those two need Oklahoma State to lose twice. Oklahoma just needs to win out, because if they beat Oklahoma State in Bedlam (presuming Oke State has continued to win up to that point), they'll have the same conference record, and OU will own the tiebreaker.

In the North, it's hard to imagine Nebraska not winning. Mizzou, since they already lost to Nebraska, needs the Huskers to lose twice. With NU's last three games being against A&M, KU, and Colorado, that's pretty much an impossible dream.

Texas A&M: Rest-of-the-Season Outlook

Um.

Well . . .

Hmm.

Let's start here: I believed in my heart of hearts that A&M was going to beat Oklahoma State. That first half, where A&M looked good on both sides of the ball and Oke State's offense looked like it had been wildly oversold, was what I truly thought--despite trying to keep my expectations realistic--that game was going to look like.

Then the second half . . . I can't call it "a nightmare" because A&M managed to come back after all should have been lost. I can't say that it lived down to my worst expectations, because I never expected, not even after the FIU game, that Jerrod would be this team's problem.

That's where we need to go next: Jerrod Johnson. After watching the OSU game, I now have to retract all the things I said about him being the Big 12's elite quarterback. I think he's a very good QB, but he not a great QB. I don't know if it's his shoulder, or his shoulder affecting his confidence, or what, but a great quarterback doesn't throw eight interceptions in two games. Even more so, a great quarterback doesn't allow a ball to just fall out of his hand where the other team can pick it up. It's hard to emphasize how disgusted I was with that fumble. He wasn't even touched. He just fumbled it.

Jerrod did some great stuff in that game and he did some horrible stuff. Now, the offensive line could have played better, and the defense clearly dropped off quite a bit in the second half. But Jerrod pretty much lost the game. The one person who, coming into the season, looked like the most promising thing about the entire team, now looks to be its biggest liability.

Do you want some good news? That's super easy: coming into this season, I believed that this had to be the year if the Ags wanted to win the division. There were two reasons: that OU and t.u. were going to have down years, and that Jerrod is a senior. Now, since most of the team is looking good and is still, for the most part, very young, it looks like the team ought to be better next year. I'm not saying that Jerrod isn't going to be a loss, but if Ryan Tannehill can do 75% of the good that Jerrod does without the bad that Jerrod has done in the last two games, the Ags would be in good shape. The t.u./OU rebuilding thing is still a concern, but I feel pretty good going forward with a team with several promising players on both sides of the ball and, of course, a coach that might actually know what he's doing.

Oh, were you looking for good news that amounted to something other than "wait 'til next year"? (I don't blame you.) Here's what I've come up with: maybe Oklahoma State is really good. And maybe the Ags will eliminate some of the mistakes. That first half, and flashes of goodness in the second half, make me think that this team could beat anybody left on the schedule. They don't have the ability to run the rest of the table, certainly, but each game is a possible win.

I truly believe that, in my heart of hearts.

Although we know how that can go.

The remaining schedule

10/9, vs. Arkansas: Toughest game on the slate. I think I just lied a few paragraphs ago, because I find it hard to imagine the Ags winning this one, if only because Arky has had a week off (to brood over their loss to Alabama and get super-ready to take it out of somebody). But who knows? I just want the Ags to look OK on TV, basically. Loss.

10/16, Missouri: Mizzou looks pretty similar to A&M so far. They've beaten up a couple weak teams, but almost lost to another weak team. They beat Illinois, but not as badly as they should have. The Ags have home field advantage, but on the other hand, it's going to be shown on TV. It's probably either my hopeless optimism or my contempt for the Big 12 North, but I like the Ags in this one. Win.

10/23, at Kansas: A&M lost last year to Colorado, which was an inferior team. That's the only reason why I might worry about this game against the worst team in the conference. I can't let that worry guide this pick, though. Win.

10/30, Texas Tech: Well, I don't think Tech is very good, do you? Win.

11/6, Oklahoma: This is one of the games I was thinking of, where the Ags could win (with excellent execution, luck, and opponent complacency). And yet, loss.

11/13, at Baylor: If you think I've been too big a Pollyanna in this post, try this prediction on for size: Baylor's not bad this year. They've got a good, exciting quarterback. They might have enough fans show up to the game, for once, so that Floyd Casey Stadium is not Kyle Field North. To top it off, the Ags have been terrible in November for years. Loss.

11/20, Nebraska: I guess Nebraska is pretty good, although it's hard to say since they haven't played anybody. Probably a loss.

11/25, at t.u.: Ew, I don't like that five-day turnaround. (The 'horns technically have one, too, but they'll be playing Florida Atlantic while the Ags take on Nebraska.) But over the last six years except for 2008, the Ags have either beaten t.u. or made them work much harder than expected for a win. This year, they really aren't that good and, if I'm right (as I hope I'm not) about the previous three weeks, the Ags will really need a win here. So, what the hey, win.

That would make the Aggies 7-5 on the season, which will be a disappointment but (depending on how the losses look) not grounds for firing Sherman. I'm still hoping they scrape up eight, but I was kind of counting on them beating Oke State.

The Final Off-Season Post

College football starts tomorrow, you guys! Tomorrow!

Admittedly, I won't be watching any powerhouse matchups such as North Dakota at Idaho, Towson at Indiana, or perennial favorite Florida Atlantic at UAB. In all seriousness, the most interesting game on the opening night docket is Minnesota at Middle Tennessee. I stand by my prediction that Middle Tennessee will triumph.

A few more thoughts to chew on before we actually get to watch some games:

Stewart Mandel at SI wonders why Texas A&M is getting all the dark horse attention in the Big 12 instead of Texas Tech. Now, I stand by my optimism about A&M's upcoming season; however, I have to concede his point that Tommy Tuberville being better than Mike Sherman. I think the jury's still out on Sherman, but that's probably the optimism talking again.

It may be that official word on future Big Ten divisions comes down today. It will probably be stupid.

People can't stop talking about Boise State's national title merits. I still think all of the attention is going to jinx them, and they'll lose this weekend to Virginia Tech. Not because they're a worse team. Just because it's the universe's little joke to immediately make all this summer's speculation pointless.

I forgot to share this when it came out, but apparently Dan "Ten Wins and No Excuses" Hawkins (who went 3-9 last year and only avoided being fired because the University of Colorado has no money to buy out his contract) wants a contract extension. If I may share my gut reaction to this story: BWAAAAA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA [gasp] HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!

Finally, Jerrod Johnson isn't just probably the best quarterback in the Big 12, he's probably the best singing quarterback in the Big 12 (or perhaps all major conferences):

Thoughts On: the Boise State Broncos

There's only one question that matters for Boise State this year: can they make it to the BCS championship game? Let's break this down pro-and-con style:

PRO: the team itself

There are nineteen starters returning from a team that went 14-0 last season, including a victory in a BCS bowl. The coaching staff has been pretty stable, the quarterback is good, and this is a group of players that don't really know how to lose--the team has only done so four times over the last four years (and three of those were in 2007, when even the "national" "champion" LSU team lost twice). As Pat Forde would tell you, there's a very strong case to be made that Boise State should start this season ranked #1.

CON: They absolutely must go undefeated.

When a team plays for a conference outside the big six, no matter what else they have going for them, they cannot ever lose a game and hope to make the championship. Depending on circumstances, Alabama could lose a game at some point and still make it to the big game. Same for texas or Oklahoma or Ohio State etc. Boise cannot. Even if we had another 2007-style year, with contenders losing left and right.

Their schedule is tough, opening against Virginia Tech in a hostile environment (Maryland which, if everything I've heard about Maryland is true, is pretty hostile to everyone anyway). They also play Oregon State, and their other two non-conference games are against non-BCS but still respectable opponents, Wyoming (at Wyoming) and Toledo.

PRO: Their schedule is tough.

They've done about all they can, scheduling-wise, to make up for being in the WAC.

CON: They're still in the WAC, though.

It's not just the BCS that won't give credit to the smaller conferences; there are even fans out there who can't make themselves believe that a minor conference team could be better than a major conference team.

PRO: If they can ever do it, this is certainly the year.

Their years of consistent excellence have finally put Boise State in a good position to start the season. One of the worst things about college football is that if a team doesn't start the year ranked highly in the preseason polls (which are just guesses), they can't climb to the top of the polls even by the end of the season. The system being what it is, Boise is very fortunate to be starting at #5 in the coaches' poll (which is the one that matters) and #3 in the AP poll (which doesn't officially matter, but is still nice for some prestige). With not that many teams ahead of them, there aren't that many teams that need to lose once or twice to oblige Boise.

CON: But who's to say they can ever do it?

We are only one year removed from the BCS, faced with the qualification of two non-BCS teams, matched them up against each other. And that's Boise State's biggest con, right there: the people who run the BCS are cowards. Unmitigated cowards. They are terrified of teams from outside the club showing up the teams from inside the club. If they can find any half-decent excuse, or even if they can't, they will keep Boise State outside of the title game. They will.

In conclusion, I would like to see Boise State dominate all of their games and make it to the championship--even if they don't win a championship, it sure would be nice if they (representing all the little guys) finally got a shot. But do I think that's going to happen? No I do not.

Either A) they'll lose to Va Tech right off the bat, making all the speculation moot or B) at least two major-conference teams will go undefeated, pushing Boise State out of contention or C) the BCS will just screw them over some way, somehow.

Season Preview: the Fightin' Texas Aggies

This off-season has taught me something about myself: being an Aggie fan for the past ten (or so) years* has scarred me a smidge. You see, I kept reading all these positive things about the upcoming season--this is an A&M with decent expectations. And my first reaction was creeping terror. Expectations, in my experience, lead to disappointment, if not heartbreak.

But I think--I think--I'm starting to get over it. Maybe it's just that I'm getting used to the idea that my own team actually has talent and experience and a coaching staff that can find their collective posterior with their collective number of hands.

Overview

The most exciting part of this team is (by far) its offensive skill players. We've got a very good receiving corps, some quite promising running backs, and probably the best quarterback in the Big 12, for crying out loud. They all performed really well last year (for the most part) and should be even better this year. (This is the kind of thing that makes me nervous. A super talented Aggie offense? You haven't seen any apocalyptic-looking horsemen around, have you?)

In spite of myself, I'm also kind of excited about the defense. Experts agree: if they can be merely competent, the offense can lead this team to very good places. (Money quote from the Yahoo! Sports preview magazine: "Three times last season A&M scored at least 31 points and lost.") They've been terrible--just abysmal--for Coach Sherman's tenure so far, but this could be the year they turn the corner. The new defensive coordinator, Tim DeRuyter (da-ROOT-er, according to Aggie Athletics), was lured away from Air Force because he did such a good job there. He's switching the Ags to the 3-4, which should work better with the team's personnel. Plus, we've got Von Miller, and he's so good!

And he wears glasses!

To be sure, he can't pick up the slack if the other ten guys are no better than last year, but it's nice to have him there.

So we've got Jerrod on one side and Von on the other, but that can't erase all the worries.

Second-biggest worry: the offensive line. They showed improvement over the course of last season, and we've finally got some more talented guys up there, but they're young. Jerrod can't Heisman it up if he has to run for his life on every play.

Biggest worry: special teams. Dangit, why did I already use up the word "abysmal"? They were so bad last year. Don't blow off the importance of special teams--if the Aggies had been competent on the third side of the ball last year, they wouldn't have lost that bowl game to Georgia. End of story. Maybe they'll be better because they've got a new coordinator too? And of course, there's the "They'll be better because they have to be" theory, which is frankly what I'm hanging my hopes on.

What does all of this add up to?

Rankings smörgåsbord:

Here's what my beloved preview magazines have to say. Yahoo! Sports ranks the Ags 43rd in the country, third in the Big 12 South. Athlon says 35th and third respectively. Lindy's (whose rankings, overall, look to me to be the least likely) goes with 30th and--brace yourself--third. It's a consensus that texas and Oklahoma will still be the cream of the division and that Tech, Oke State, and Baylor will be non-factors.

Similarly, the New York Times' college football blog (summarizing a longer article at Pre-Snap Read) places the Ags 34th in the nation.

Finally, A&M is "receiving votes" in the one that kind of matters, the preseason coaches' poll--the Aggies are getting 45th-most votes, if you take the time to count up the RVers. How many votes does that translate to, you ask? Why, a healthy three! Interestingly, A&M is getting fewer votes than Oklahoma State and Texas Tech--maybe the coaches don't read the magazines?

So if the average prediction comes true, we're looking at finishing the season definitively outside the Top 25, but at least on a few people's minds. (Alamo or Insight Bowl, I'd suppose.) But that won't win Jerrod a Heisman, now will it?

Schedule

It is my tradition not to predict the outcomes of A&M's conference games until the non-conference slate is over. This year, unusually, we have the first conference matchup (against Oklahoma State) before the last non-con (Arkansas). So I'm just going to pick the first four and save the last eight until after they're done. (A&M vs. Oke State seems to be the easier call anyway.)

9/4, Stephen F. Austin: Layup.

9/11, Louisiana Tech: A team A&M should beat even if they didn't have a new coach.

9/18, Florida International: And that makes three.

9/30, at Oklahoma State: I like the odds of starting 4-0, I really do. Oke State lost a lot, a lot, of guys, and I've never been sold on Mike Gundy. Last year was their big chance to achieve something, and they blew it. When you think about it, it's a bit surprising T. Boone hasn't put out a hit on Deion Sanders. That we know of.

Now, if the Ags win these, and depending on how they win (and on how everybody else does, of course), we'll be able to see if the Aggies might be able to make some noise this season. Here are some more things to consider:

Arkansas is a team in the same general mold of the Aggies--big-time offense, afterthought defense. Their offense is, however, bigger-time than ours (at least so far).

This year's North slate is Mizzou, at Kansas, and Nebraska. It's nice that the tougher two are at Kyle. I don't have high hopes for the Nebraska game, because I'd have more faith in their lousy offense against our possibly lousy defense than in our possibly terrific offense against their very serious defense. (Did that make sense?) I'm pretty confident about the Kansas game--new coach, bare cupboard, same old story. The Mizzou game falls somewhere in the middle. I never have a great handle on those guys, mostly because of my apathy toward them.

Texas Tech and Baylor, like Oklahoma State, don't really scare me that much this year. Tech's got a new coach, and although Tommy Tuberville's great, it's hard to predict how he's going to mesh with the guys on Tech's roster. The system he's going to want to run is very different from the system most of them were recruited to play in. Baylor should be better than they were last year, because their crazy amazing quarterback, Robert Griffin III, will be back from injury (on top of the natural arc of improvement they should be following in their third year under Art Briles). But that means they should be roughly as good as the Aggies were last year, shooting for bowl eligibility. (You'll hear this anywhere Baylor is mentioned, but if they make it, it would be their first bowl game since 1994.) They could beat us, but the odds aren't good enough for me to fret about it.

As for the big boys--another thing the experts all seem to think is that texas and Oklahoma are going to be just about as good as usual. They're projected to compete with each other (and Nebraska) for the conference championship and to be at least in the discussion for the national title game. (t.u. and OU are respectively ranked fourth and eighth in the preseason coaches' poll.)

I'm a little dubious. (Is "hopefully dubious" a thing?) The t.u. team lost most of the stars that studded last year's national championship runner-up team. OU was totally wrecked by injuries last year (yes, for a Bob Stoops team, eight wins counts as "totally wrecked"), and they should be better this year, but they still don't have comparable guys to those that were the runners-up to Florida in the '08 championship. The prevailing theory seems to be that with the two schools' top-notch coaching and recruiting, they can simply reload to stay at an elite level no matter who graduated or got drafted. I just don't know if I'm buying it.

Here's the thing: texas and Oklahoma, if I'm guessing right, might have down years in the same year. This is the last year of eligibility for Jerrod Johnson, who's the best quarterback to come through A&M in a long, long time, and he's got an excellent supporting cast. What I'm getting at is, I want A&M to win the Big 12 South.

Now, next year's Aggie team might be better than this one, because even though we'll lose Jerrod and Von, everybody else will be a year older and wiser, and trouble spots like the offensive and defensive lines should continue to improve. But OU and t.u. will probably be fully reloaded again, so I think our odds will probably be worse. (Of course, by next year, there will be no such thing as winning the division, only winning the conference. But, practically speaking, that's not going to be much different than winning the South is now.)

So that's what I want. What I expect (as in "These are my bare minimum expectations for you, Mike Sherman") is an eight-win season. I could live with seven, but I wouldn't be happy about it. Nine would be nice, ten terrific. Eight is doable. It's not asking too much. Go forth and win at least eight, Aggies!

*Yes, since I didn't become an Aggie fan until I started school there, that statement made me feel old, too.

Season Preview: Tennessee Volunteers

Today I take a gander at Mr. Football Gal's alma mater, the University of Tennessee. And it does not look good.

Who's going to throw the ball? Who's going to catch the ball? Who's going to run the ball? Who's going to coach the team?

Seriously, who is this guy?

Most pressingly--who are they possibly going to beat?

Let's review the makings of what may turn out to be the worst season Tennessee has ever had.

The Kiffin Debacle

There was this guy, see. His daddy is a real good defensive coordinator, he worked with Pete Carroll at USC, and he was supposed to be a young coaching phenom. At the tender age of 31, he was hired as head coach by the Oakland Raiders. He had no previous head coaching or NFL experience (unless he worked some weird lackey job for the Jaguars, but Wikipedia says a citation is needed for that one), but he got the job anyway because Al Davis is a crazy old man. After a season and a bit, Davis fired Kiffin and announced it in a notoriously bizarre press conference. It was easy to assumed that Kiffin was in the right, because Al Davis is a crazy old man. And that he is, but maybe he also had Kiffin pretty well sized-up.

Meanwhile! After some mediocre seasons, the powers-that-be at Tennessee decided that Phil Fulmer, for all the good he had done them over the years (including the 1998 National Championship), was not going to take the program back to the top of the SEC. This wasn't a mistake. It was a similar situation to the one A&M faced in '02 with R. C. Slocum--they had a well-respected but past-his-prime coach, and the mistake was not in replacing him, but in who they replaced him with.

UT decided on Kiffin. He immediately began racking up NCAA rules violations and generally annoying everyone. (There were more links I could have put in, but it just got tiring after awhile, you know?) He proved to be nothing special as a coach, going 7-6 in his first and, as it turned out, only season. Though he wasn't much to write home about as a coaching talent, and though he made UT the subject of too much NCAA scrutiny, the worst thing he did was to quit to take the USC job--not immediately after the season, but just a month before national signing day. (Also, he tried to lure UT's best recruits away with him: "The night Kiffin took the USC job, [assistant coach Ed] Orgeron made calls attempting to poach Tennessee recruits who were set to attend their first classes in Knoxville the next day.") The most (and only?) charitable thing I heard about Kiffin's departure from Tennessee was from my sister-in-law, who theorized that he left because his "cute little wife" wanted to move back to California.

Dudes on the internet get pretty creepy about Mrs. Kiffin.

Most people were . . . less positive.

But let's not put all of this on Kiffin. (Most, yes. Not quite all.) Don't forget the role that cowardly Pete Carroll played, in abandoning USC because he knew the consequqnces of his delinquency were finally going to come around. He knew USC would be punished this year, thanks to his overworked blind eye, and he ran away.

Since UT got into the coaching search game so late, they couldn't find anybody they really wanted. Lots of guys didn't want to do to their schools what Kiffin had just done to Tennessee. Now, I'm not saying that . . . Dennis? . . . no, Derek! Derek Dooley is a bad guy; he jumped at the chance because how could he turn down a job that far out of his league? He was coaching Louisiana Tech, and he went 17-20. That's not very good, even for LA Tech (presumably). It would be nice to think that as the son of an SEC coaching legend, he's some as-yet-undiscovered talent, a real up-and-comer who just needs his first big shot! But that seems unlikely.

I still think Tennessee could have gotten Mike Leach. (I have floated this idea past Mr. Football Gal, and he'd much rather take his chances with David Dooley. Wait, no--Derek Dooley.) Whatever you want to say about the guy (he's nuts, he has chronic verbal diarrhea, he doesn't care about defense, what's up with the whole pirate thing?, etc.), he can turn nothing into something. And that's kind of what the Vols need right now.

Personnel

Doolen--oops, Dooley--did a better job of keeping Kiffin's recruiting class together than one might have expected. That said, he still lost some guys, including the promising Bryce Brown (who was one of the few fun people to watch in last year's offense, I tell you what).

It's hard to say who will start at QB. Last year's backup, Nick Stephens, left; the latest of Phil Simms' progeny, Matt, is showing some alarming incompletion and interception tendencies; and freshman Tyler Bray is 6' 6", 195 lbs, so before he gets snapped in half by a DB, at least he'll be able to see the guy coming.

And this is as bulky as he looks with pads on.

The offensive line is painfully inexperienced. The running backs are young; the receivers are OK. TE Luke Stocker gets some hype, but it's a bit overblown.

The defense may be in a little better shape, but even it lost its crown jewel Eric Berry to the NFL.

And it's not just individual player losses that hurt, it's total numbers. As my SEC Lindy's magazine told me, they only have 78 scholarship players (or they did at Lindy's' publication date, anyway) out of the possible 85; they've lost 33 players since Phil Fulmer was fired (and that was before Darren Myles got arrested and kicked off the team a couple weeks ago); and during the spring game, they couldn't even fill both sides' offensive lines with scholarship guys. Decent players are thin on the ground at Tennessee, let alone good ones.

The schedule

To add insult to multiple injuries, even for an SEC team, UT has a very difficult schedule this year. So where might wins come from?

• 9/4, Tennessee-Martin: Hey, there's one! (1-0)
• 9/11, Oregon: Even with their problems, they should be able to handle this Tennessee team. (1-1)
• 9/18, Florida: No. (1-2)
• 9/25, UAB: Barring something kind of crazy, yes. (2-2)
• 10/2, at LSU: Even Les Miles won't be able to mess this up. (2-3)
• 10/9, at Georgia: And Mark Richt should do even better. (2-4)
• 10/23, Alabama: I don't think 'Bama will need to depend on blocked field goals this year. (2-5)
• 10/30, at South Carolina: I think very little of latter-day Steve Spurrier's abilities to get his team to win, so I think there will be a chance of a UT upset here, but I'm going to play it safe and call this a loss. (2-6)
• 11/6, at Memphis: Memphis has a football team? (3-6)
• 11/13, Ole Miss: Doesn't look so good. (3-7)
• 11/20, at Vanderbilt: I think Tennessee handles Vandy for, gulp, their first conference win. (4-7)
• 11/27, Kentucky: This is the single hardest game on the schedule for me to call. Did you know that Tennessee over Kentucky is the nation's longest active series winning streak? UK hasn't beaten UT in football since 1984. I can't imagine the Vols letting that go without a fight, and the game is in Knoxville. Kentucky has a brand-new coach (the awesomely named Joker Phillips)--will that cause growing pains or reinvigoration? Basically, this is what it comes down to for me: this feels like a four-win team (and I know from four-win teams). I know it sounds stupid to say that I'd be more confident that the Vols would beat the Wildcats if they first lost to the less-good UAB Dragons or the Commodores, but that's how I feel. But things being as they are, I guess I'm predicting a loss here. (4-8)

Tennessee has never in their history had an eight-loss team. Therefore, if I'm right, UT fans should prepare for not just a bad season, but perhaps their Worst Season Ever.

Season Preview: Wisconsin Badgers

As a UW alumna (grad school) and current resident of Madison, I really ought to cheer harder for the Badgers. But for whatever reason, I'm definitely less a "fan" and more a "well-wisher." (In my defense, I'm not sure I've met any Huge Badger Fans [insert your own joke about Wisconsin residents' love of beer and cheese here]. My theory is that Sconnies just love the Packers too much to make room in their hearts for their college team.) However, if I'm ever going to move up to the really nice seats on the Badger bandwagon, this may be the year to do it.

Factors
There are a lot of returning offensive starters from what was the most productive offense in the Big Ten last season. (Most impressive statistic: UW led the nation in time of possession, averaging over 39 minutes a game. I'm surprised it's even possible to average over 39 minutes of possession a game.) It's the first time in Bret Bielma's tenure that the starting QB will be the same guy two years in a row. Sure, Scott Tolzien isn't showing up on any Heisman watch lists, but he's solid.

He can dig it.

Even though it's a Wisconsin offense, which usually runs its starting RB into the ground, they were surprisingly balanced last year. There won't be any excuse (barring catastrophic and widespread injuries) if they fail to be very, very good this year.

The defense is more questionable. Many important starters and a couple of the position coaches are gone, but the replacements should be at least decent.

The biggest cause for concern is that Bielma's teams seem to have an inverse relationship between expectations and results. The better they're predicted to do (and on paper, they ought to do pretty dang well), the worse they usually perform.

Nonconference schedule
UW starts its season by playing two teams with brand-new coaches. Also, both of them--UNLV and San Jose State--should be atrocious. (OK, UNLV maybe won't be atrocious, and the game will be at their place, but still, they're nothing much to be afraid of.) The biggest ticket non-con game is against actual BCS conference member Arizona State, which might have a new coach next year if he keeps doing as poorly as he has so far. UW's fourth opponent will be Austin Peay State University. Here's the most important fact about them: it's pronounced "Austin P." In conclusion, if Wisconsin doesn't start 4-0, something has gone terribly wrong.

Conference schedule
The obvious worries are October 16th's game against Ohio State (although that's in Madison, which is nice) and the next week, Iowa at Iowa. But you can't write off Michgan State (in Wisconsin's first conference matchup of the season, October 2nd); UW hasn't won in Lansing since 2002.

Best player name
Louis Nzegwu

My prediction
I can't see Wisconsin going unbeaten through the Big Ten, but maybe if Iowa and Ohio State drop a few games between them, the Badgers can share the conference title? At the very least, I won't be surprised if they come in second. They're projected to be a top-ten or -fifteen team, and I don't see any reason why they can't achieve the latter (and maybe the former, if and only if they do better than Iowa) . . . unless, of course, they fall victim to their chronic underachiev-itis. But I'll be optimistic and declare that this will be the big year! (That is, the year Wisconsin can come in a healthy second place to Ohio State.)

Thoughts On: the Minnesota Golden Gophers

OK, I really just have one thought, and that is this: why, WHY are you opening your season at Middle Tennessee State, Gophers? Why would you do this?

Here's the thing. Middle Tennessee State (do they abbreviate MTS? Let's assume they do) had a 10-3 record last year, apparently. They're a crummy lower-tier school, but they're a good crummy lower-tier school. This may be a worse idea than when Michigan opened against then-reigning Div II champions Appalachian State. Worse because MTS is bigger and you're inexplicably going to their place, but probably better because that Appalachian State thing was really, really hilarious.

(A better parallel would be, I realize, last year's Colorado loss at Toledo, but I like to mention that Appalachian State thing whenever possible.)

You've had some hard times recently, Gophers, and this dumb scheduling is not going to help things. This season isn't likely to be very good anyway, but your all-too-likely loss to MTS is going to get it started not with a bang, but with a fart sound effect.

Season Outlook: Ohio State Buckeyes

It feels like a confession to admit this, but I like Ohio State. There are two reasons: first, I have an Ohio State fan friend, and we have a fanship exchange whereby she roots for Texas A&M. Anytime I can create a new Aggie fan, I have to take the opportunity. Secondly, I think Jim Tressel is adorable.

O. M. G. So cute.

So for the sake of my Ohioan friend and Jim Tressel's sweater vest, I am interested to see how tOSU's (that is, the Ohio State University's) season goes.

Expectations

This is a team up against some exacting expectations. Now, take for instance Alabama. It is generally agreed that they are the favorite to win the national title again. However, if they drop a game here or there, they will (again, generally) be forgiven. They play in the nation's toughest conference, and they have a very difficult schedule. (Fascinating tidbit from Yahoo's college football preview magazine: six of Alabama's conference opponents will have had their open week right before playing Alabama. Six! South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn get two weeks of preparation before playing Bama. All six.) If Alabama doesn't live up to the preseason projections of winning the national championship or even the SEC championship, people will understand.

On the other hand, it is practically unimaginable that Ohio State won't win the Big Ten. They are Expected to win yet another conference championship (to make it six, yes six, in a row). If they don't, it will be head-turning. Gasp-inducing. Monocle-dropping. If they are dominant enough in the Big Ten to go undefeated and win their one challenging nonconference game (see below), they should be a lock for the national title game. They are not, at this point, expected to win that game, but according to almost everyone, they're supposed to get there. And for the most part, the expectations seem justified.

Factors

Ohio State returns lots of starters on both sides of the ball. (Although admittedly not on the third side of the ball, where there will be a new kicker, new punter, and new returners.) It's not just the staff but also the players who are accustomed to winning, who know how to win.

There's a lot of hype for QB Terrelle Pryor in particular. This is where I start to get skeptical. Pryor (who my friend and I call '"Everybody Kills People" Guy') has always gotten a lot of hype and until last year's Rose Bowl, failed to live up to it. Yes, he had a great game in that bowl. On the other hand, he had a great game. Either he turned a corner and finally figured out how to use all his talent/potential, or he had one freakishly good performance just like he's had some freakishly bad performances. I think it's possible that it's the former, but I'm wary that it's the latter.

Ohio State doesn't need EKPG to be his Rose Bowl self every game to be extremely successful, but they're not going to live up to the expectations if he's only as good as he was (or only a little better than he was) in last year's regular season.

Nonconference games

tOSU only has one nonconference game of note. After all, they're not losing to Marshall, Ohio, or Eastern Michigan, so why worry about it? No, all we need to look at is their Week 2 matchup with Miami (the good one). Miami is expected to be a top twenty (but not top ten) team this year. Their schedule is murderous, but tOSU is the first of their challenging games, so they won't be worn out yet. It's in Columbus and tOSU should be the better team (although Miami's defense might be up to the task of exposing EKPG), so they should be able to start their season on a high note.

Conference games

Barring a bizarre loss like last year's flop at Purdue, Ohio State's biggest Big Ten challenges should be at Iowa on November 20 and at Wisconsin on October 16. Iowa's preseason projections are slightly better, but tOSU apparently has a track record of tough games in night games at Camp Randall. Either game (or both) may give them fits, if not losses.

Best player name

Jake Stoneburner

My prediction

I think Ohio State will succeed in winning the Big Ten and reaching the BCS championship game this year. They may be a little weaker than some sportswriters are expecting, and they may drop a conference game, but I'm predicting some weakness at the top of the polls this year. Even slightly less than tOSU's best might be better than most everybody else.

And hey, if they do that and then if EKPG is able to pull off another amazing bowl performance, maybe they'd even win the national championship. Wouldn't that be weird?!?